A Pyrrhic Victory: Why Magyar’s Win is not a Triumph for Liberalism
After 16 years in power, Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán has finally been unseated by Opposition leader Magyar, proving even rigged ‘electoral autocracies’ can be challenged. However, by beating Orbán at his own populist game, Magyar replaces a stagnant regime with a new brand of charismatic nationalism rather than progressive liberal values. Although the autocrat is gone, the right-wing trajectory of Hungarian politics remains unchanged.
The voting polls are closed and the first wave of results are coming in. After 16 years in power, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has lost. But has Hungarian Democracy truly won?
The true test of a democracy is whether an election can force a change in power, even when the odds are stacked against the opposition. This is evident in Hungary, where Orbán managed to seize control over the media, key state institutions and the judicial system, gerrymandered electoral districts to ensure his party wins supermajorities even with unfavourable results, and installed an oligarchical ‘System of National Cooperation’ that benefits a close circle of loyalists.
These developments in turn led Members of the European Parliament to consider Hungary an ‘electoral autocracy’, where the country currently ranks near the bottom of the 27 European Union member states regarding perceived corruption (27th), press freedom (25th) or purchasing power (25th) with stagnant GDP growth.
Despite establishing an autocratic system that Orbán himself called an illiberal democracy in 2014, the oppositional Tisza party under its charismatic leader Magyar Petér was the clear favourite of early predictions. In the weeks leading up to the parliamentary elections, analysts predicted a landslide two-thirds majority for Tisza, which would grant it the power to amend the constitution.
The Fidesz party’s response? Artificial intelligence-fuelled deep fake smear campaigns, characterised by antisemitic tropes and supplemented by fear mongering, insinuating an imminent war threat to the Hungarian people in the event of a Tisza win. But despite breaking scandals regarding Magyar’s private life and ongoing Russian disinformation, Orbán lost to his challenger. Not even an alleged thwarted false flag attack on the TurkStream pipeline (a vital lifeline for Hungarian energy security which Orbán tried to blame on Ukraine) could prevent Magyar from beating the autocrat at his own populist game.
But who is Péter Magyar? Up until 2024, Magyar was a loyal follower of Orbán. Joining Fidesz in 2002 and serving the Hungarian government in Brussels, he is less of an outsider to the system than one might think. Magyar did not just observe the democratic backsliding in Hungary and Orbán’s establishment of a clientelistic system – he was part of it.
That only changed two years ago, when in the midst of a scandal involving a presidential pardon for a child abuse cover-up, he very publicly left Fidesz, exposed Orbán’s hypocrisies in a viral video interview, joined the smaller opposition party Tisza and started campaigning against his former allies.
While Magyar counters Orbán's anti-EU and pro-Russian rhetoric decisively and promises to bring an end to the democratic backsliding and crony capitalism initiated by the administration, he is not the progressive champion some would like to see in him. Not only has he been working inside Orbán’s apparatus for most of his political life, he has also adopted the same nationalist optics that kept Fidesz popular for almost two decades.
Furthermore, Magyar has been neutral on other contested issues–ranging from queer rights to support for Ukraine–and steers clear of any stance that might alienate his nationalist base. On migration policy, he vowed to take an even harder line than Orbán. Tisza itself is far from being a progressive force. As a populist, centre-right party, it is unlikely to alter Hungary’s recent political trajectory, where discourse has shifted so far to the right that liberalism has become an afterthought.
While Orbán's defeat is undoubtedly highly symbolic for the rule of law in Hungary, relationships with the European Union and Russian influence in Europe, it is a pyrrhic victory for Hungarian democracy. The new parliament consists exclusively of centre-right to extreme right wing parties, showcasing the effectiveness of Orbán’s relentless radical messaging. The progressive opposition parties more or less withdrew from the race, having learned from the 2022 elections that division between them only leads to Orbán’s victory.
Even with its definitive two-thirds majority, Magyar’s mandate to reverse Orbán's illiberal state restructuring faces a critical trial. While it remains unclear whether Magyar will genuinely aim to dismantle his predecessor’s system or merely adapt it, he now wields the power to change the constitution. Despite this legislative potential, a partisan constitutional court, a president loyal to Orbán and deep-rooted corruption will likely trigger a period of institutional deadlock, similar to Poland’s predicament. Ultimately, this is not a victory of progressive liberal values over an autocratic ruler. It is simply the triumph of a charismatic nationalism over a stagnant regime.
Moritz Niessen is a Master of International Affairs candidate at the Hertie School, specializing in Human Rights and Global Governance. He is currently completing an internship at GIZ Kosovo in Pristina.