The concern in Europe following the Munich Security Conference is understandable, but the developments we are seeing today are simply a continuation of the same strategy as used before.
Donald Trump has successfully used the threat of tariffs to achieve his goals before—Mexico and Canada reinforced border security, and Denmark will increase its military spending in Greenland. Now, the same playbook seems to be unfolding for Europe. Why haven’t the feared tariffs arrived yet? Well, they can be used as a bargaining chip: either Europe accepts a Ukraine peace deal, or it faces steep tariffs and a trade war.
This strategy is not just about economic pressure, it’s also about geopolitical manoeuvring. The U.S. is pushing Europe into a position where it must take responsibility for its own security. The result? A significant military buildup. Europe, long reliant on American protection, now faces a turning point: either it strengthens its own defence capabilities, or it becomes an economic hostage to a U.S.-Russia arrangement. While the profitability of previous deals remains debatable, this upcoming agreement has the potential to bring significant change.
From a strategic perspective, this could lead to a significant shift in global power dynamics. The U.S. would be free to shift its military focus entirely to the Indo-Pacific, where it views China as the primary threat. Meanwhile, trade restrictions would weaken Europe and force it to build its defence from the ground up.
The key question remains: Can Europe carve out its own path, or will it be cornered into submission? And if America remains first, who will be second?
Petr is a Master of Public Policy candidate at the Hertie School and a Master’s student in Law at Charles University. His academic focus, in which he also has professional experience, lies in European policies and international relations. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and International Relations from Charles University, and has studied abroad at McGill University and Leiden University.
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