In the early hours of November 6, 2024, Donald J. Trump claimed victory after his win in Pennsylvania sealed his return to the White House. Although technology was not a central theme of the campaign, his ‘America First’ agenda will undoubtedly influence transatlantic relations in the realm of technology governance.
As Trump is set to start his second term next Monday, January 20th, European policymakers and businesses face a number of strategic decisions. Speculating about what the 47th president of the United States will or will not do is as unsatisfying as it is necessary for European decision-makers. While Trump’s policies are often described as unpredictable, the last months have shown that his “madman” approach has a certain system and a clear agenda. Trump’s transversal, isolationist, and disruptive style of governance does not merely challenge the transatlantic tech relationship, but actively dismantles its foundations, transforming it beyond recognition.
Complex Relationship with Big Tech
Trump’s relationship with Big Tech is a contradictory one, something that has not changed since his first presidency. Back then, there was talk of banning TikTok and a lawsuit that can now lead to the break-up of Google. He also tried to roll back legal protections for tech platforms, and a few months ago, he threatened to jail Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
But since his last term in office, Trump seems to have backtracked on many tech-related issues. He indicated that he no longer wants to ban TikTok or break up Google, though it’s not clear if he’ll be able to put the genie back in the bottle on either issue.
In fact, tech billionaire Elon Musk is Trump’s first buddy now. Musk was a major donor to his campaign and is the appointed head of Trump’s newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency. Due to their close relationship, Musk will be able to influence US tech policy in unpredictable ways.
Musk is not the only one cozying up to the President-elect. Apple CEO Tim Cook, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and Google CEO Sundar Pichai all publicly congratulated Trump following his November victory. Meanwhile, Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI each pledged $1 million to Trump’s inauguration fund. Facebook founder and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg went even further, announcing plans to eliminate fact-checkers and replace much of the content moderation on Facebook and Instagram with community notes. He cited the recent election, calling it “a cultural tipping point to prioritize speech again.”
Furthermore, tech companies are increasingly acting as state-like entities, influencing international trade and regulatory norms. Firms like Apple and Amazon shape global supply chains, while AI leaders like OpenAI arguably dominate innovation.
Trump’s selective engagement with these companies, such as his past use of Twitter to influence corporate decisions or the targeted exclusion of Chinese tech firms like Huawei, will likely lead to fragmented US positions on key issues, complicating efforts to coordinate transatlantic policy. European stakeholders must prepare for mixed signals from Washington, which will challenge their ability to align strategies.
Speaking with one voice is therefore more crucial than ever for the European Union. An aligned Union would allow for resistance to Trump‘s deal-making mentality and a fragmentation scenario of the European Union, in which leaders of EU member states travel to Washington one after the other to get the supposedly best bilateral deal with the US president.
Protectionism and Its Implications for Europe
Under Trump’s “America First” agenda, technology will undoubtedly become a battleground for protectionism. Tighter export controls, particularly on semiconductors and AI, will prioritize domestic U.S. innovation over international collaboration, potentially putting pressure on European tech companies to decouple from Chinese markets.
Moreover, reshoring initiatives, coupled with tariffs targeting supply chains linked to China, are expected to dominate his administration’s agenda. Paradoxically, European companies may face new barriers to investing in critical US sectors. This will restrict access to US-developed technologies and deepen supply chain vulnerabilities.
Many European companies that rely on U.S.-based platforms for cloud computing and AI could face disruptions that threaten their competitiveness. To mitigate these risks, Europe must accelerate investment in domestic capabilities while diversifying technology partnerships and creating innovation frameworks that guarantee investment in certain key technologies.
Diverging paths
Under the Biden administration, the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has been a key forum for aligning transatlantic regulatory approaches. But the TTC is likely to be sidelined under Trump, halting progress on harmonizing standards for AI, cybersecurity and digital services. This divergence will leave Europe and the US on different paths, leading to regulatory fragmentation.
With the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA), the EU is set to position itself as a global leader in tech regulation. These initiatives aim to curb Big Tech’s influence and establish rules for fair competition. In contrast, Trump’s deregulatory approach is expected to roll back efforts to regulate AI and digital monopolies in the U.S.
Europe must adapt to these divergent approaches while maintaining leadership in global tech governance, using its regulatory power to shape standards for emerging technologies. This can only be done by strengthening multilateral partnerships with, but especially beyond, the U.S. By continuing to promote the principles of the DMA and the DSA, the EU can work towards creating a de facto global standard for regulating Big Tech and promoting fair competition.
The EU must also use its position as one of the world’s largest markets to encourage compliance with its rules. For example, requiring foreign companies to meet EU standards for AI safety and digital services as a condition of market access is the only way to incentivize global adoption of European standards.
Decoupling from China
Trump’s hardline stance on China will likely dominate his technology policy, expanding export controls and imposing new sanctions on Chinese companies. Restrictions on cooperation with Taiwan’s TSMC and other semiconductor manufacturers could escalate geopolitical tensions in critical supply chains.
Europe faces a dilemma in this decoupling process. While the US will pressure its allies to adopt tougher measures against Chinese technology, many European countries maintain significant economic ties with Beijing. Aligning too closely with Washington risks provoking retaliation from China, thereby jeopardizing trade and investment relations. Europe must find a middle ground in balancing US demands with its own strategic interests, to avoid being caught in the crossfire of Sino-American competition.
Strategic Choices for Europe
Trump’s return to the White House presents both challenges and opportunities for Europe. On the one hand, his policies could disrupt established transatlantic norms and complicate cooperation. On the other hand, they offer Europe a chance to strengthen its strategic autonomy and assert its role as a global leader in technology policy.
To navigate this volatile landscape, Europe must redouble its investment in research and innovation to reduce its dependence on US technology. It should use its regulatory leadership to set international standards that reflect European values, particularly in the areas of AI and cybersecurity. Expanding partnerships with US states, which are already taking the initiative to establish regulatory frameworks for big tech in the absence of federal action, and private companies will also be key to maintaining transatlantic cooperation.
Ultimately, Europe must embrace this moment of disruption as an opportunity to redefine its place in the global tech landscape and to become a decisive actor in shaping the future of technology policy.
Vincent is a Master of Public Policy candidate at Sciences Po Paris and the Hertie School. His research interests include security and defense policy, European politics, and the regulation of emerging technologies. Vincent holds a Bachelor of Sciences in Global Studies and has professional experience in consulting and field research. In his spare time, you can find him reading and writing over a good cup of coffee.